Trump again?
In 2016, Donald Trump was elected president, shocking the entire world. However, Trump only served one term, meaning that he can run for president once more. In two years, the 2024 US presidential election will be held, but will he participate?
“Everyone wants me to run,” said Trump in an exclusive interview for New Delhi Television Ltd, an Indian news media company, on September 9th, adding that “[he] is leading in every poll: the Republican polls and the Democrat polls.” While his decision is not yet official, Trump seems to be hinting at his participation in the 2024 US presidential election by saying that “[he’ll] make a decision in the near future and [he thinks] that a lot of people are going to be very happy.” Even Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy says that while the majority of Americans say that Trump damaged the underpinnings of democracy, support for the former president within the GOP has grown.
In addition, Trump seems to be very popular among the Republican Party. Peter Kuo, the California Republican Party vice chair, says that he “missed those days when [America] had [sic] good economy,” implying that Trump’s economic policies are what America needs. While Kuo did not specify what economic policies Trump administered, he may be referring to the tax cuts made in 2017 or the series of tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada, and many others to have greater trade protection. In addition, Jason Clark, a 2012 Republican candidate for District 17 of the California State Assembly, says that if Trump decides not to run, “a lot of people are going to put their hats in” and choose not to vote. Also, from a poll by New York Times, 49% of the Republican voters preferred Trump over other Republican candidates. Clearly, many Republicans are still loyal to the former president, indicating that Trump has a formidable chance of reelection that can not be ignored by future candidates.
Interestingly, the Democratic Party does not entirely oppose Trump’s participation in the 2024 election. In fact, journalist Christopher Cadelago believes that the Democratic Party is “eager for Trump to cannonball into the 2024 election” to contrast the ideals of the Democratic Party with that of the extreme RepublicanPparty, according to Cedric Richmond of the Democratic National Committee. The values that the Democratic Party argues for are mainly social equality like upholding minority rights. These ideals appear very different from the efforts that the Republican Party made to overturn previous rulings of the Roe v. Wade and Obergefell v. Hodges cases, both of which upheld abortion and same-sex marriage respectively. As a result, the Democratic Party is not necessarily against Trump’s participation.
Of course, not everyone is pleased with Trump running for president in 2024. For example, a pedestrian interviewed on KTVU news displayed her concerns about Trump’s influence on American politics. She said that “Trump, rather than bringing people together, caused disruption.” Additionally, according to a Pew Research Center survey, 53% disliked Trump’s act as commander in chief. Likewise, there are lots of people who publicly announce their disapproval of Trump for president.
It is, as of now, unclear if Trump has an outstanding advantage in popularity. While Trump himself states that the poll numbers had “gone through the roof,” journalist Tom Norton is skeptical of the truth of this statement because he believes Trump is full of exaggerations. However, Norton does admit that a National Tracking Poll published on August 10th, 2022, found that about 57 percent said they would vote for Trump in 2024. Although the numbers differ from various polls, it still may be a possibility that Trump will become president in 2024. This is because age comes to be a notable factor when electing a president. Recently, the health and fitness of president Biden have been in question. Theories about president Biden having dementia are emerging and his popularity is decreasing. Having an unhealthy president may come as a national threat for the US, which voters may be concerned about. Thus, if Biden also runs for reelection, Trump will most likely have an advantage in physical health over Biden.
However, it is worth noting that Trump is only three years younger than Biden. According to Henry Brady, a political science professor at UC Berkeley, Trump does have disadvantages of having an old age. He adds on by saying that in addition to age, “there are going to be some questions about Trump and his fitness for office.” As professor Brady points out, there is definitely a generational gap between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. In addition, adults in 17 states disagreed with the court’s ruling to overturn Roe v Wade. Considering that this ruling was made from a highly Republican standpoint, Trump, in addition to his age, might have many disadvantages in terms of support for social policies. Thus, while it is more likely that Trump has an advantage in physical health over Biden, it is only marginal.
Many people from various countries were surprised when Trump was elected president in 2016. In two years, the 2024 US presidential election will begin. Although it is not official that Trump will be running for president, it seems very likely that he will. Due to his outstanding popularity among the Republicans, Trump will most likely become the Republican representative. However, the real battle begins by going against people’s disapproval of the Roe v Wade overturn, the current Democratic presidency, and even his old age. Will Trump become the 2024 US president or just a tool that the Democratic Party uses to gain its own popularity?